By STEVEN MORELAND
August 2013
Growing up I was incessantly curious: I wanted to know answers to questions that most did not care about, always asking “Why?” For more than twenty years I’ve studied the art of thinking to learn why we don’t know, yet lie… thinking that we do. There’s a blindness to the gap between what we know and what we think we know… but do not. We’re addicted to the assumption that our beliefs represent “truth,” especially those beliefs that we adopt from “experts.”
Nassim Taleb (The Black Swan) and statistical analyst Nate Silver (The Signal and The Noise) explain many of the problems we create by entrusting our decisions to the predictions of Experts. Validated by psychology professor Philip Tetlock’s 15 years of research (Expert Political Judgment) after analyzing thousands of expert predictions, he discovered that the more prominent the expert (ie, the more they were quoted by the news media), the worse their records tended to be. There is almost an inverse relationship between the confidence of the individual forecaster and the accuracy of their predictions.
These charlatans babble utter absurdities, repeatedly proven false, but no one questions their “error rates.” Yet we cannot wait for the next release of Roberson’s prophecies, McLaughlin’s political forecasts, or the government’s economic predictions!
So I’m the last guy to profess an alternate “truth.” Instead, as an aspiring Stoic, I look for the simple and the functional. Sutor, ne ultra crepidam means “cobbler, no further than the sandal!” or don’t offer your opinion beyond your competence!
First, the Latin references our beliefs as the interpretations they are — opinions, nothing more. Secondly, it cautions not to offer these opinions beyond our “competence.”
How would our world be different if we adopted this motto? Doctors could offer his opinion re your collapsed vertebrae but not about religious preferences. Judges could proffer their opinion re the established law but not claim to know an accused’s thoughts (motives). An economist could opine about financial history but not how the market will react to future events. And the clergy could get legitimate jobs as circus barkers… while politicians would all be sent to the welfare line.
In The Four Hour Work Week, author and Stoic Tim Ferriss offers this provisional solution that I find both simple and functional: “If it can’t be defined AND effected– abort it.”
Part 1: every question must contain fully defined terms.
Part 2: can the answer to the question be acted upon to improve the current state?
Examples:
Q. What is the meaning of life? A. Violates Part 1 and thus Part 2. Abort.
Q. What happens if I miss the train tomorrow? A. Violates Part 2. Abort worrying about it.
Q. What does the Creator expect us to do with our lives? A. Violates Part 1 and thus Part 2. Abort unnecessary worry.
Q. What if I stopped relying upon “experts” and learned to just be quiet? A. Check, Part 1. Check, Part 2. Proceed.
Bottom line, experts’ opinions are anything but competent, rarely beating random chance. And Mark Twain once remarked about common sense, that it’s not very common. Maybe we should work on acquiring more of that and less time listening to talking heads.
Cicero said in Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar:
“Men may construe things, after their fashion… clean from the purpose of the things themselves.”